/ Published in Australian Open, Daniil Medvedev, Rafael Nadal

2022 Australian Open Final: Nadal d Medvedev Analysis In 42 Enhanced Tweets

G’day!

I think most of us are still scratching our heads trying to figure out how Rafael Nadal staged such a brilliant comeback in the 2022 Australian Open final against Daniil Medvedev. I was fortunate enough to be at the match and tweeted throughout it. A couple of days ago, I started re-reading the tweets to get a feel for how the momentum started with Medvedev but then switched halfway through the match to Nadal.

The tweet timeline helped me understand it a lot. So here are all those tweets plus some extra analysis to help you better understand how the match unfolded. Enjoy!

Tweet 1

When they played at the 2019 US Open final, both players essentially abandoned the baseline as the match got longer and longer in favor of the higher win percentages at the net. Here are their numbers from that match:

Tweet 2

Medvedev has a contentious relationship with crowds at his matches. Nadal never has. So it was no surprise that Nadal got 100% adulation when he walked out on the court and Medvedev got a mixed bag. He typically thrives on negativity from the crowd, but he really complained about it in his post-match interview.

Tweet 3

Nadal served first and the game went to one Deuce and then he held. The rally length for the eight points were 7, 4, 1, 5, 4, 10, 19, and 1. So two return errors and two rallies in double digits. But you have also got to factor in Rafa runs the time clock down to zero on every point before serving. Rafa made 5/8 first serves, so you have also got to wait another 10-15 bounces between first and second serve as well.

Tweet 4

I was really surprised that both guys were not really cracking the ball, trying to force errors with power and direction. Medvedev, especially, seemed to be baiting Rafa to go for something big and overhit. The lack of power early on was not what I was expecting.

Tweet 5

In Nadal’s second service game, he fell behind 0-30, and consequently faced a break point at 30-40 and Ad-Out. The first point of the game was 10 shots. The second was 26, and Rafa lost both of them. Rafa also missed his first three first serves of the game. Medvedev was playing off pace and baiting Rafa to go for something he really shouldn’t. Medvedev started with a very defensive-minded strategy and it worked a treat for two and a half sets.

Tweet 6

In the 2021 Australian Open final, Djokovic attacked Medvedev’s forehand early in the match with success. He did it by taking him wide, pressuring with direction and power. I was paying keen attention to see if Nadal was going to follow the same game plan.

Tweet 7

Off-pace. Consistent. Clever. Rafa was broken to love. The first point was 18 shots, then 4, 10 and 2. The 18-shot rally did the damage. Confused Nadal. Threw him off balance. He is usually the one to have the opponent on a string in longer rallies. It’s very difficult to create and execute a superior game plan to Rafael Nadal in a match. Medvedev was achieving it in spades early on.

Tweet 8

Medvedev was on a rampage. From 2-2, Medvedev had won 12 of the next 14 points to race to a 5-2 lead. And here’s the most jaw-dropping fact – he had just broken Nadal to love TWICE IN A ROW! The scoreboard said 6-2, but it was worse than that. Medvedev had totally “unlocked” Nadal to steamroll the opening set. There were two 20-shot rallies in this stanza and Medvedev won both of them. Rafa didn’t know what hit him.

Tweet 9

Watching this match “live” from the stands, the biggest factor was the lack of offense from Rafa. He was not hitting the ball. He was not pushing Medvedev around the court. He was not going big and creating a “good miss” which will soon turn into a ball that will hurt Medvedev. From 2-2, Medvedev won 16 of 19 points to rattle off the opening set. It was stunning – to say the least!

Tweet 10

I could not believe how often Rafa was settling for a backhand slice in a rally. It had no benefit at all for him. He was not forcing errors with the slow ball. Medvedev actually had no problems at all handling it. I watched Rafa overdose on the slice backhand in earlier rounds and I just could not figure out why he was doing it much more than normal. No obvious benefit. He desperately needed offense to attack Medvedev, but the slice backhand gave him none of that. And on top of that, a lot of these slice backhands could have been his favorite shot – the run-around forehand!

Tweet 11

This is kind of an “inside joke”. If you are from Melbourne, you know the suburb of St Kilda is on the ocean. Anything south of St Kilda is in the ocean. That’s where I thought Rafa’s slice backhand belonged at this stage of the match.

Tweet 12

Rafa finally breaks Medvedev for a 3-1 lead in Set 2. It was the first break point Rafa generated in the match. Interestingly, there was a FORTY shot rally at 15-30 and Rafa won it with a backhand winner. It was the first glimmer of hope Rafa had enjoyed in the match.

Tweet 13

Nadal holds for 4-1. You don’t win 20 Grand Slam singles titles from not problem solving your way out of tight spots like this.

Tweet 14

Here’s the downside. When Medvedev targets Rafa’s backhand in the Ad court, and Rafa responds with too many slice backhands, Rafa has almost no way to force an error. He is toast. But if he runs around that ball to the backhand and upgrades to a forehand standing in the Deuce court, he can produce all the offense he wants. This single dynamic was becoming THE pivotal strategy for Nadal.

Tweet 15

The loooong rallies were favoring Medvedev. He was running and pushing and playing off-pace and completely befuddling Nadal. Rafa had no pace to work with. No power to scorch back at his opponent. The longer the rally went, the further Rafa slipped into the quicksand with no way out. He needed shorter points. He needed to attack earlier with the serve, return, Serve +1 and Return +1. But he could not yet see it.

Tweet 16

As you can see from the match stats from the first two sets in my tweet, Rafa’s goose was cooked. Nothing – repeat, absolutely nothing – was working well enough to carry him to victory. He served for the set at 5-3, but got broken in a long game that had four deuces. He had a set point, but lost an eight-shot rally with a backhand error. He led 2-0 with a min-break in the tie-break. He also led 5-3 with a mini-break, then lost four straight points, including rallies of 17, 12 five and two shots. It was a five-alarm fire for the Spaniard.

Tweet 17

Nadal’s first serve percentage was unusually low at 53%. It was 69% in the semi’s vs. Berrettini and 68% in the quarters vs. Shapovalov. It had abandoned him so far in the final.

Tweet 18

Medvedev was putting so many returns back in court in the first two sets, mainly because Rafa was missing so many first serves.

Tweet 19

Medvedev owned two key stats after two sets. He was rocking Rafa in the 0-4 rally length with a 16 shot advantage (47-31) and had committed 16 fewer unforced errors (22-38). These numbers are significant. Everything at this stage was pointing towards the Russian winning the third set and the title in the next 30-45 minutes.

Tweet 20

The average rally length was the canary in the coal mine for Rafa. At this juncture in the match, it was 6.32 shots, which is really, really long. Too long. This was definitely to Medvedev’s advantage. Rafa was not attacking enough, not forcing enough errors and not dictating from the back of the court. He was getting outplayed from the baseline. Medvedev was in total control being only five games (20 points) from the finish line.

Tweet 21

Rafa is only 12 points away from losing the match and has absolutely nothing to hang his hat on. Not winning short, medium, or long rallies. Not attacking enough. Not producing enough offense or winners. The situation is dire for the Spaniard and he has no obvious pathway to get out of the deep hole he finds himself in.

Tweet 22

Another huge disparity in the match is the number of serves being returned back into the court. Medvedev has put 89% of Nadal’s serves back in the court. That’s a ridiculously high number. Medvedev has also won 42% of 1st serve return points, which is DOUBLE Rafa’s 21%. Rafa has only seen four break points thus far in the match. Daniil has seen 13 – more than triple Rafa has seen. Everywhere you look, Rafa is bleeding. And the finish line is 12 points away.

Tweet 23

Rafa is the KING of the run-around forehand. When opponent’s go to his backhand, he is incredibly good at turning those backhands into forehands. Not so in this match. Rafa is settling for way too many backhands. And to make matters even worse, he is settling for SLICE backhands over run-around forehands. This is a huge reason why he finds himself in such a big hole this late in the contest.

Tweet 24

Nadal squeaked out the third set 6-4. Rafa is still alive and fighting, but the right game plan is still not clear in his mind. This sequence of shots sums up his general lack of offense. Three neutral backhands are not going to get the job done against Medvedev. The Russian is going to put every one of those balls back in play and there will zero upgrade at all for Rafa in the point. These balls are all right in the wheelhouse of his potent run-around forehand. Yet, he is not choosing to hit it.

Tweet 25

Rafa is still alive and we are now in Set 4. The crowd is very pro-Rafa as a new set begins. They know he needs all the help they can offer.

Tweet 26

The worst way to lose a point in tennis is a double fault. It can expose that you are nervous, or fragile mentally, or don’t really believe – or just that you didn’t do what you normally do with your 2nd serve! In this case, it was to lose serve and go down a break in the 4th set in a Grand Slam final against a 20x Grand Slam champion. It was all about opening the door. Pile on the fact that Medvedev reacted to the crowd with a thumbs up and things all of a sudden things were very spicy! It was a very quick game with the following rally length – 2 shots, 4 shots, 3 shots, 4 shots, 1 shot, double fault.

Tweet 27

Talk about topsy turvy! Rafa breaks Medvedev to lead 2-1 in the 4th Set and then gets immediately broken back. Nadal won two 11-shot rallies in this game but committed two forehand errors to be broken from 30-30. Just when you thought you finally had a read on this match…

Tweet 28

Nadal had a set point receiving in the previous game at 5-3, 30-40, but lost a three-shot rally. Rafa’s confidence is growing by the minute. He is finally figuring out that short points are better than long ones. That attacking with his forehand, especially as a run-around is the ideal weapon to counter Medvedev’s extreme consistency. Rafa needs to make something happen, and he holds to love with two unreturned serves. The match is getting really late (almost midnight) and the match is about to become dead even at two sets all.

Tweet 29

We hit midnight and we go two sets all right about the same time. Personally, I think it’s bonkers that athletic events are played this late. It’s all dictated by TV, but why in the world is it okay for players and fans and media to all be onsite past midnight working? Completely 🍌.

Tweet 30

Rally length is starting to drop, which is to Nadal’s benefit. In the opening game of the 5th set, the average rally length for 10 points was 2.6 shots. That’s wayyyy down from the average of 6+ shots from sets one and two. Nadal had a break point at 30-40, but Medvedev hit a Serve +1 forehand winner. All of a sudden, it’s anyone’s title to win!

Tweet 31

As I mentioned earlier, what in the world are we doing up at midnight watching a tennis match? 🤣

Tweet 32

You can tell I am just trying to take all of this in at the moment. After midnight, which is crazy. In the 5th set of a Grand Slam final, which is crazy. Nadal attempting to come back from a two-set deficit, which is crazy…

Tweet 33

It’s Sunday. No, it’s just turned Monday. It’s after midnight. It’s completely insane to schedule a tennis match this absurdly late.

Tweet 34

Yes, it does feel like I have lost my marbles a little. As you can tell from the pic, the place is still packed at 12.22am. Don’t these people have to go to work in a few hours?????

Tweet 35

Nadal has finally hit the lead. Nadal breaks on his second break point of the game. Medvedev won three points in the game, all of which were one shot rallies = an ace or an unreturned serve. The other five points all included Nadal returning the serve in play and he won them all. Serious momentum building as the finish line gets very real.

Tweet 36

I figured as it was the middle of the night in Melbourne, people would be waking up in other parts of the world probably thinking that this match was already over. Far from it! Wake up and make yourself some vegemite toast and enjoy this great finish!

Tweet 37

This sounds over-simplified, but it was really how the match felt. For 2.5 hours, everything that Rafa tried basically failed to work. He was not ahead. He was not able to break. He was losing all three rally lengths. He had a boatload of unforced errors. His serve was ineffective. His run-around forehand was insipid. And then…. it all changed and he could not put a foot wrong. Crazy stuff…

Tweet 38

Just your run-of-the-mill five-hour Grand Slam final. After midnight. For Nadal to break the record and own 21 Grand Slams. Nothing special, really… 😆. Nadal broke for a 3-2 lead in the 5th set and his next service game went for 18 points, including six deuces. And to top off all that drama, Medvedev has three consecutive break points that he could not convert. Heart-stopping stuff!

Tweet 39

Nadal served for the match at 5-4 in the 5th set. He led 30-0 in that game, and then lost four straight points, including a double fault! My goodness the drama level was out of control!

Then.., at 5-5, he breaks again on his 3rd break point of the game and will serve for the title again. The ebb and flow of momentum is delivering incredible drama!

Tweet 40

Look at Rafa in the first pic, standing there with his hands on his hips smiling as big as he can possibly smile. It was a heroic comeback that seemed very improbable for over two hours. The drama was non-stop for almost five and a half hours. This match delivered… and then some!

Tweet 41

When nothing is going right for you, don’t give up. Your worst enemy is the clock rushing fast at you. Slow down. Hang around in the match. Things change. Momentum shifts. Emotions change. A perilous position suddenly becomes fortuitous. Rafael Nadal hung around in this match long enough for the tide to turn. Masterful.

Tweet 42

Click on the link above to read my full ATP analysis on the ATP’s official website. The main focus of the story is how long rallies early on favored Medvedev, but Nadal slowly but surely stamped his offensive game on the final, considerably shortening the average rally length.

Congratulations to making it to the end of this thread! I hope it gives you better insight into how much trouble Rafa was actually in, and how he was able to turn it around and finally claim victory – his 21st Grand Slam victory!

All the best,

Craig